Another View of Japan





The Director of the War Plans Division of the Navy Department (Turner) to the Chief of Naval Operations (Stark)


Washington, July 19, 1941.


5.Effect of Further Restrictions on Exports.



(b) It is generally believed that shutting off the American supply petroleum will lead promptly to an invasion of the Netherlands East Indies. While probable, this is not necessarily a sure immediate result. Japan doubtless knows that wells and machinery probably would be destroyed. If then engaged in war in Siberia, the necessary force for southward adventures might not be immediately available. Furthermore, Japan has oil stocks for about eighteen months' war operations. Export restrictions of oil by the United States should be accompanied by similar restrictions by the British and Dutch.




(e) An embargo on exports will have an immediate severe psychological reaction in Japan against the United States. It is almost certain to intensify the determination of those now in power to continue their present course. Furthermore, it seems certain that, if Japan should then take military measures against the British and Dutch, she would also include military action against the Philippines, which would immediately involve us in a Pacific war. Whether or not such action will be taken immediately will doubtless depend on Japan's situation at that time with respect to Siberia.




Foreign Relations Of The United States 1941 Volume Iv : Internet Archive(839ページ)